민주당 지지자들의 고민 해결을 위한 시뮬레이션[긴급]

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민주당 지지자들의 고민 해결을 위한 시뮬레이션[긴급]

민주당 비례연합 참여를 두고 전당원투표가 진행되었습니다. 이에 대한 경우의 수를 정리하여 시뮬레이션으로 민주당원들이 어떠한 결정을 해야하는지 살펴보겠습니다. <table width="545" style="width:410pt;border-collapse:collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="42" style="width:32pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="104" style="width:78pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="88" style="width:66pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="93" style="width:70pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="42" style="width:32pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="88" style="width:66pt;" span="2"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td width="545" height="22" style="border:.5pt solid;width:410pt;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;" colspan="7">민주당 비례 비참여시</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#FFFFFF;height:16.5pt;">기호</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">정당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">정당득표율</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">지역구 당선</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">비례</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">연동형비례</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">원내의석수</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">더불어민주당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">45.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">128</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">8</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">136</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">2</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">미래통합당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">0.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">109</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">109</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">2</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">미래한국당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">41.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">7</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">22</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">29</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">3</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">호남당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">2.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">2</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">4</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">안철수당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">6.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">3</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">4</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">5</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">정의당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">3.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">2</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">3</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">6</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">친박1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">3</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">4</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;">7</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">친박2</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;">8</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">민중당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;">9</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">개독당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">　</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;">10</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">무소속</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">　</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">11</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">11</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;">　</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">합계</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">100%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">253</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">17</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">30</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">300</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border:0px #000000;height:16.5pt;" colspan="2">더불어민주당</td> <td align="right" style="border:0px #000000;">136</td> <td style="border-width:.5pt 0px 0px;border-style:solid none none;border-color:#000000 #000000;" colspan="3">매국당(미래+안철수+친박+정의)</td> <td align="right" style="border:0px #000000;">150</td></tr></tbody></table> 민주당이 현행대로 비례 공천후 비례연합에 불참할 경우 매국당에 총선을 패배하고 맙니다. <table width="545" style="width:410pt;border-collapse:collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="42" style="width:32pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="104" style="width:78pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="88" style="width:66pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="93" style="width:70pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="42" style="width:32pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="88" style="width:66pt;" span="2"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td width="545" height="22" style="border:.5pt solid;width:410pt;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;" colspan="7">민주당 무공천+비례연합 몰빵</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#FFFFFF;height:16.5pt;">기호</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">정당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">정당득표율</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">지역구 당선</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">비례</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">연동형비례</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">원내의석수</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">더불어민주당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">0.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">128</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">128</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">2</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">미래통합당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">0.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">109</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">109</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">2</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">미래한국당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">41.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">7</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">12</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">19</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">3</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">호남당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">3.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">2</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">4</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">안철수당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">6.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">2</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">3</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">5</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">정의당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">3.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">2</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">6</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">친박1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">3</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">3</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;">7</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">친박2</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;">8</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">민주비례연합</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">45.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">8</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">14</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">21</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">9</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">개독당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">　</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;">10</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">무소속</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">　</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">11</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">11</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;">　</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">합계</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">100%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">253</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">17</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">30</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">300</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border:0px #000000;height:16.5pt;" colspan="2">더불어+비례연합</td> <td align="right" style="border:0px #000000;">149</td> <td style="border-width:.5pt 0px 0px;border-style:solid none none;border-color:#000000 #000000;" colspan="3">매국당(미래+안철수+친박+정의)</td> <td align="right" style="border:0px #000000;">137</td></tr></tbody></table> 민주당과 지지자들에게 가장 좋은 시나리오입니다. 민주당 무공천 후 시민을위하여+열린민주당까지 모두 하나로 합쳐진 상태에서 민주당 지지자들이 정의당에 현혹되지 않고 비례연합에 몰빵해주면 민주당의 힘만으로도 총선승리가 가능해집니다. <table width="545" style="width:410pt;border-collapse:collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="42" style="width:32pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="104" style="width:78pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="88" style="width:66pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="93" style="width:70pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="42" style="width:32pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="88" style="width:66pt;" span="2"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td width="545" height="22" style="border:.5pt solid;width:410pt;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;" colspan="7">더불어/열린/시민을위하여 각자 플레이</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#FFFFFF;height:16.5pt;">기호</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">정당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">정당득표율</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">지역구 당선</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">비례</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">연동형비례</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;">원내의석수</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">더불어민주당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">25.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">128</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">4</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">132</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">2</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">미래통합당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">0.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">109</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">109</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">2</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">미래한국당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">41.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">7</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">16</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">23</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">3</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">호남당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">3.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">3</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">4</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">안철수당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">6.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">2</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">3</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">5</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">정의당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">3.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">3</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">6</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">친박1</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">3</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">4</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;">7</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">친박2</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">1</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;">8</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">시민을위하여</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">10.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">2</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">4</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">6</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">9</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">열린민주당</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">10.00%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">2</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">4</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">6</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;">10</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">무소속</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;">　</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">11</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">0</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">11</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;">　</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">합계</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">100%</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">253</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">17</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">30</td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;">300</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border:0px #000000;height:16.5pt;" colspan="2">더불어+열린+시민</td> <td align="right" style="border:0px #000000;">144</td> <td style="border-width:.5pt 0px 0px;border-style:solid none none;border-color:#000000 #000000;" colspan="3">매국당(미래+안철수+친박+정의)</td> <td align="right" style="border:0px #000000;">143</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border:0px #000000;height:16.5pt;"></td> <td style="border:0px #000000;"></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px #000000;">75.00%</td> <td style="border:0px #000000;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px #000000;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px #000000;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px #000000;background-color:transparent;"></td></tr></tbody></table>민주당이 비례를 공천하는 순간, 더불어민주당에 표가 가는 순간 표의 효율은 급격히 떨어집니다. 이것은 경우의 수 중 차악의 수입니다. ※주의사항 : 민주당 지지자들은 정의당에 현혹되면 안된다. 정의당은 지금의 스탠스로는 충분히 문 대통령 탄핵으로 돌변할 가능성이 있음. 시뮬레이션 결과, 민주당의 비례 무공천은 무조건적으로 해야하는 조치이며, 향후의 비례연합이 몰빵이 되도록 하는 것이 시민사회의 중요한 임무라고 볼수 있겠습니다.

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[1] 2020/03/13 06:51:36 39.114.***.9 러너비 710884
[2] 2020/03/13 06:54:17 175.223.***.123 대역전4Life 23142
[3] 2020/03/13 07:19:09 122.32.***.5 슈가럽 767674
[4] 2020/03/13 07:25:32 112.165.***.229 dter001 773140
[5] 2020/03/13 07:33:51 172.68.***.175 대전역가락국수 326562
[6] 2020/03/13 07:36:15 73.35.***.130 drfluid 114265
[7] 2020/03/13 07:57:37 106.102.***.132 선빵여왕 686528
[8] 2020/03/13 08:19:29 172.69.***.215 옥돌1 762094
[9] 2020/03/13 08:40:37 222.113.***.136 강원청년 696099
[10] 2020/03/13 08:45:47 211.253.***.79 몽랑유객 71808

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