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<table width="574" style="width:434pt;border-collapse:collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="82" style="width:62pt;" span="7"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td width="82" height="18" style="border:0px;width:62pt;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td width="82" style="border:0px;width:62pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">19대</font></td> <td width="82" style="border:0px;width:62pt;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td width="82" style="border:0px;width:62pt;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td width="82" style="border:0px;width:62pt;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td width="82" style="border:0px;width:62pt;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td width="82" style="border:0px;width:62pt;background-color:transparent;"></td></tr><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td height="18" style="border:0px;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">새누리당</font></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">더불어민주당</font></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">국민의당</font></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">정의당</font></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">기타정당</font></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">없음</font></td></tr><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td height="18" style="border:0px;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">19/20대</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">29.5</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">68.1</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">22.7</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">12.2</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">3.2</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">22.3</font></td></tr><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td height="18" style="border:0px;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">30대</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">21.3</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">81.8</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">26.9</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">6.8</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">7.4</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">7.8</font></td></tr><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td height="18" style="border:0px;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">40대</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">55.0</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">93.0</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">25.4</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">12.2</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">9.5</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">14.9</font></td></tr><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td height="18" style="border:0px;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">50대</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">110.5</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">70.5</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">49.4</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">6.8</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">11.7</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">10.9</font></td></tr><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td height="18" style="border:0px;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">60세</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">188.3</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">48.4</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">49.0</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">4.9</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">12.7</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">23.5</font></td></tr><tr height="19" style="height:14.25pt;"><td height="19" style="border:0px;height:14.25pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">합계</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">404.6</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">361.7</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">173.5</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">42.8</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">44.5</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">79.4</font></td></tr><tr height="19" style="height:14.25pt;"><td height="19" style="border:0px;height:14.25pt;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:1pt 0px 1pt 1pt;border-style:solid none solid solid;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">39.4%</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:1pt 0px;border-style:solid none;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">35.2%</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:1pt 0px;border-style:solid none;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">16.9%</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:1pt 0px;border-style:solid none;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">4.2%</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:1pt 1pt 1pt 0px;border-style:solid solid solid none;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">4.3%</font></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"></td></tr><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td height="18" style="border:0px;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"></td></tr><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td height="18" style="border:0px;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">20대</font></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"></td></tr><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td height="18" style="border:0px;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">새누리당</font></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">더불어민주당</font></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">국민의당</font></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">정의당</font></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">기타정당</font></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">없음</font></td></tr><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td height="18" style="border:0px;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">19/20대</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">45.1</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">104.0</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">34.7</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">18.6</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">4.8</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">34.0</font></td></tr><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td height="18" style="border:0px;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">30대</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">25.2</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">96.8</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">31.9</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">8.1</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">8.8</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">9.2</font></td></tr><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td height="18" style="border:0px;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">40대</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">69.5</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">117.5</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">32.1</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">15.4</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">11.9</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">18.8</font></td></tr><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td height="18" style="border:0px;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">50대</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">110.5</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">70.5</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">49.4</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">6.8</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">11.7</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">10.9</font></td></tr><tr height="18" style="height:13.5pt;"><td height="18" style="border:0px;height:13.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">60세</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">176.7</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">45.4</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">46.0</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">4.6</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">12.0</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">22.1</font></td></tr><tr height="19" style="height:14.25pt;"><td height="19" style="border:0px;height:14.25pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">합계</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">427.0</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">434.2</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">194.1</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">53.4</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">49.2</font></td> <td align="right" style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">95.0</font></td></tr><tr height="19" style="height:14.25pt;"><td height="19" style="border:0px;height:14.25pt;background-color:transparent;"></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:1pt 0px 1pt 1pt;border-style:solid none solid solid;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">36.9%</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:1pt 0px;border-style:solid none;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">37.5%</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:1pt 0px;border-style:solid none;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">16.8%</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:1pt 0px;border-style:solid none;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">4.6%</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:1pt 1pt 1pt 0px;border-style:solid solid solid none;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="2">4.3%</font></td> <td style="border:0px;background-color:transparent;"></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br></p> <p><br></p> <p>상기 자료는 4월 7일 리서치뷰의 마지막 조사를 기반으로 하였습니다.</p> <p>숫자는 2000명 표본집단 중에 보정된 인원수구요.</p> <p>중앙선관위에서 발표한 19대 당시 세대별 투표의향율 대비 실제투표율을 20대에 적용하여 산출한 결과입니다.</p> <p>각종 예측조사에서 새누리의 과반이상을 예측하는데요.</p> <p>세대별 인원수 보정이 없거나, 인원수 보정이 있어도 투표율 보정을 19대 기준으로 할 겁니다.</p> <p>19대 기준으로하면 4% 차이 패배, 일반 전문가들 예상처럼 새누리의 과반수가 나오고도 남을 수치입니다.</p> <p>160~180석 예측한 종편 정치평론가들... 이런 통계보정의 개념 전혀 없었을거라 장담합니다.</p> <p>개별선거구 대결 볼 거 없습니다. 어차피 정당득표로 어느정도 의석수는 예측되거든요.</p> <p>또 한가지, 이번 선거의 여론조사 대비 실제선거결과는 19대총선보다는 5대지방선거에 가까울 가능성이 높습니다.</p> <p>19대총선은 이명박정권 레임덕(정권 5년차)이라 자유롭게 설문에 응했겠지만, 5대지방선거는 정권 한창(정권 3년차)이라 숨은표가 많았습니다.</p> <p>지금(정권 4년차)도 아직 박근혜정권 레임덕은 시작도 안했으며, 이번 선거에 레임덕 여부가 달려있으므로 숨은표가 많을 것이라 예상합니다.</p> <p>부디 2010년처럼 출구조사 반전으로 13일 오후 5시경 오유시게가 떠들썩해지길 기원합니다.</p> <p>끝으로, 상기 지지율에 근거한 제 예상의석을 덧붙이자면,</p> <p><br></p> <p>새누리당 128석</p> <p>더불어민주당 132석</p> <p>국민의당 25석</p> <p>정의당 8석</p> <p>무소속 7석</p> <p><br></p> <p>정책이슈하나 없는 이번선거 그나마 최대 키워드는 흙수저,헬조선이라고 생각합니다.</p> <p>모두 청년들의 언어죠.</p> <p>20~30대 청년들의 패기넘치고 현명한 판단 기대합니다.</p>
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