<p class="MsoNormal">새해를 맞이해 제가 즐겨보고 있는 주간전망대 내용을 요약해서 올리고자 합니다.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">바빠서 정리 못한점 이해해주시고 / 4명의 패널이 이야기하는 것이라서 문장과 문장이 연결되지 않고 모순될수 있습니다.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a target="_blank" href="http://youtu.be/pd_xCj5P_Yc">http://youtu.be/pd_xCj5P_Yc</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><br></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><br></p> <p class="MsoNormal">05/Jan/15 <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">인포맥스</span>TV</p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">주간전망대</span><span lang="ko"> </span>– 2015<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">년</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">긍정과</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">부정사이</span></p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">저유가</span></b><b></b></p><p><b></b></p><b></b> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">부정적</span>: <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">저유가가</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">소비증진을</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">일으키지</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">않을</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">것</span></p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">                <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">산유국</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">경제악화</span><span lang="ko"> </span>-> <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">한국경제</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">악영향</span></p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">                <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">무역흑자</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">상승</span> -> <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">원화</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">상대적</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">고평가</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">유지</span>(<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">미달러강세에</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">불구</span>) -> <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">수출악영향</span></p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">긍정적</span>: <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">중국의</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">경제활성</span> -> <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">한국경제</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">긍정적</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">영향</span></p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">유럽</span></b></p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">유럽경제</span> Japanization</p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">유럽</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">조만간</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">양적완화</span> (<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">시장의</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">기대가</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">이미</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">큼</span>, ‘<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">효과는</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">없지만</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">안하면</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">큰일</span>’ <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">의견도</span>)</p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">미국</span></b><b></b></p><p><b></b></p><b></b> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">실업률</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">하락</span>, <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">임금</span> 2.5%<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">상승예상</span> => <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">경기회복세</span> / <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">다만</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">저유가로인한</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">물가</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">디플레</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">압박</span></p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">금리인상</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">지연</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">한다면</span>, <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">시장을</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">오히려</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">불안하게</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">할</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">것</span>. <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">금리인상은</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">호재</span> (<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">미국경제</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">회복을</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">증명</span>)</p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">체력회복</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">안된</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">나라들에게는</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">위기가</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">될수도</span></p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">대미수출</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">좋아지고</span>, <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">한미</span>FTA<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">효과가</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">나타남</span>. <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">미</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">경제</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">회복시</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">수출</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">호재</span></p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">한국</span></b><b></b></p><p><b></b></p><b></b> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">상황에</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">맞춰</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">금리정책</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">해야함</span>.</p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">2004<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">년</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">미국금리</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">상승시</span>, <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">한국금리</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">하락함</span>. <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">미국</span>-IT<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">버블붕괴이후</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">회복세</span>/ <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">한국</span>-<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">신용카드거품붕괴후</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">소비</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">마이너스</span>.</p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">금리</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">인상</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">할</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">만큼</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">한국</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">경기회복</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">미지수</span>.</p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">아베노믹스</span></b><b></b></p><p><b></b></p><b></b> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">성공시</span>, <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">세계</span>(<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">한국포함</span>)<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">경제</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">긍정영향</span></p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">엔화약세</span>-> <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">한국수출</span>, <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">내수</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">악영향</span> (<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">내수</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">악영향으로</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">한국</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">정책기조</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">변화</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">구조조정</span>><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">내수</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">활성화</span>)</p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">달</span>-<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">엔</span>:  120<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">예상</span>, 130~140<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">시</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">통제</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">불가능</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">수준</span></p><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">엔</span>-<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">원</span>: 800<span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">원대</span>/// <span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">지속</span><span lang="ko"> </span><span lang="ko" style="font-family:'맑은 고딕';">하락</span></p><p></p>