<div><span style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">이번 선거에서는 변수가 참 많은것같습니다. </span></div> <div><span style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></span></div> <div><span style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">일명 카더라라고 일컬어지는 예상들..</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">예를들어//</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">1. 새누리당 지지자들이 정치에 환멸을 느껴서 투표율이 저조할것이다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">2. 수도권에 부는 새누리발 공천파동이 결국 새누리 수도권 대패를 가져올것이다</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">3. 호남은 여론조사와는 다르게 더민주의 지지율이 높다</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">4. 영남 낭동강벨트 및 일부 지역에서 이상기류가 장난이 아니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">5. 야권의 표가 결국에는 되는쪽으로 밀어줄것이다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">6. 일베 및 일부 보수들의 역선택이 국민의당의 지지율이다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">7. 여론조사의 신뢰성이 너무 떨어진다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">8. 야권의 젊은층의 투표율이 사상 최고일것이다</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">9. 야권이 보수층을 상당부분 흡수했다</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">등등</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">수도권에서 박빙인 지역이 절반이 넘는다고 합니다. 그리고 안희정지사의 모 기관에의하면, 3%로 갈리는곳이 수도권에서만 총 27곳이라고 합니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">그리고 그 기관이 분석한결과, 더민주는 3%갈리는 곳에서 거의 다 진다는 결론...그래서 약 50석 내외..</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">그렇다면</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">수도권 50</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">충청 8</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">영남 5</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">제주 2</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">호남 10</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">비례 15</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">하면, 약 90석이 됩니다. </div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">그렇다면, 더민주가 110석을 하려면, 저 위에 언급한 카더라가 맞아서, 수도권 3%로 갈리는 27곳에서, 반정도 14석</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">수도권 64 (수도권의 딱 절반)</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">충청 10</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">영남 6</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">제주 2</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">호남 13</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">강원 1</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">비례 15</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">총 111석...</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">수도권 투표율만 나와주면, 충분히 가능하리라 봐요...</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">지난 총선에서 더민주가 수도권 2/3 가까이 했으니...</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">이 정도가 되면, 성공했다 할수있을듯...</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">그리고 궁물당이 쪼그라듭니다. 많아봐야, 17석</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;">투표하면 이깁니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6px;"><br></div>
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