<table width="690" align="center" bgcolor="#f8f8f8" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-bottom:15px;line-height:160%;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;font-family:Tahoma;color:#000000;font-size:12pt;padding-top:15px;"> <div align="justify"><span style="text-align:justify;line-height:23px;font-family:'굴림체';color:#000000;font-size:14px;"> </span><div><font><strong>확률 실험 - 컨테이너, 괴물체가 될 수 있는가</strong></font><br><font>(<a target="_blank" href="http://www.surprise.or.kr/" target="_blank">WWW.SURPRISE.OR.KR</a> / 카오스 / 2014-11-14)<br></font></div> <div></div><br><br><div style="text-indent:-38.3pt;margin-left:38.3pt;"><span>명제 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">: RCS </span><span>값이 큰 육면체의 컨테이너 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">20</span><span>여개를 각기 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">30m </span><span>범위에서 한 데 모으면</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">, 80~100m </span><span>크기의 괴물체 영상을 만들어 낼 수 있다</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">.</span></div> <ul><li> <div><span>조건</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1. RCS </span><span>값이 크다</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">.</span></div></li> <li> <div><span>조건</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">2. </span><span>각기 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">30m </span><span>범위내로 한 데 모아야 한다</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">.</span></div></li> <li> <div><span>조건</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">3. 각기 6</span><span>개의 면 중 어느 한 면이라도 레이더와 각도가 일치해야 한다</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">.</span></div></li> <li> <div><span>조건</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">4. </span><span>전체 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">20</span><span>개가 똑같이 면이 일렬로 레이더와 각도가 일치해야 한다</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">.</span></div></li></ul><div>  <div></div></div> <div><span>컨테이너가 괴물체가 될 수 있는 실험의 조건</span></div> <ul><li> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1. </span><span>피체의 면체가 갖는 특성으로 높은 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">RCS </span><span>값</span></div></li> <li> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">2. </span><span>피체는 각기 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">30m </span><span>이내 집합</span></div></li> <li> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">3. </span><span>피체가 면체이므로 레이더와 각도 일치</span></div></li> <li> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">4. </span><span>각 피체뿐 아니라 전체 피체가 레이더와 각도 일치</span></div></li></ul><div>  <div></div></div> <div><span>검증</span></div> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1. RCS </span><span>값은 아직 논쟁 중</span></div> <ul><li> <div><span>시지프스 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">- </span><span>그렇게까지 높은 값은 아니다</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">. 20</span><span>여개를 전부 모아도 괴물체 크기를 표시할 수 없는 절대 미미한 수준</span></div></li> <li> <div><span>분석관</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">, 0042625, </span><span>프러세스 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">- </span><span>높은 값 유지 사수</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">(</span><span>컨테이너 구조상 삼각코너 리플렉터나 코너 리플렉터의 예는 기각</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">(</span><span>이유 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">: </span><span>일반화의 오류</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">))</span></div></li></ul><div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">2. </span><span>피체가 각기 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">30m </span><span>이내에서 집합 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">- </span><span>그런대로 인용</span></div> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">3. </span><span>레이더와 각도 일치 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">- </span><span>기각</span></div> <div><span>이유</span></div> <div><span>  가. 환경 :</span></div> <ul><li> <div><span>서거차도 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">VTS </span><span>레이더와 괴물체 거리 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">- 11.425km</span></div></li> <li> <div><span>레이더 안테나 크기 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">- </span><span>회전시 지름 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">5.5m</span></div></li> <li> <div><span>안테나 회전 속도 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">- 10~30rpm(2</span><span>초</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">~6</span><span>초당 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>회전</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">, </span><span>평균 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">4</span><span>초당 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>회전</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">)</span></div></li></ul><div><span>  나. 산술 계산 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">: </span></div> <ul><li> <div><span>면체가 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>도 틀어지면 되돌아오는 전파가 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">199.394m </span><span>빗나감</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">(11,425m × </span><span>사인</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>도 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">= 199.394m).</span></div></li> <li> <div><span>그러므로 면체가 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">0.027582</span><span>도 이내로 레이더와 일치해야 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">5.5m </span><span>안테나에 전파 포착 가능</span></div></li></ul><div><span>  다. 확률 계산 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">:</span></div> <ul><li> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">6</span><span>면 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">× 360</span><span>분의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>도 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">× 0.027582</span><span>도 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">= 1/2175</span></div></li> <li> <div><span>해설1)</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;"> </span><span>육면체인 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>개의 컨테이너가 물 위에서 롤링하면서 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">11.425km </span><span>떨어진 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">5.5m </span><span>안테나에 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">4</span><span>초당 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>번 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>면이 잡힐 확률은, 360<span>분의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>도 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">× 0.027582</span><span>도 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">= </span></span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">13,050분의 1</span></div></li> <li> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">해설2) 6</span><span>면체이므로 컨테이너 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>개가 잡힐 확률은, </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">6</span><span>가지의 경우이므로 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">13,050</span><span>분의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1 × 6 = 2,175분의 1</span></div></li></ul><div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">4. </span><span>전체 피체</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">(20</span><span>개 가정</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">)</span><span>가 한꺼번에 레이더와 각도 일치 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">- </span><span>절대 기각</span></div> <ul><li><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">2</span><span>개 동시 일치 확률 =</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;"> 1/2175 × 1/2175 = 473</span><span>만분의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span> </li> <li> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">3</span><span>개 동시 일치 확률 = 1/2175 × 1/2175 × 1/2175 =</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;"> 102</span><span>억 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">8,910</span><span>만분의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span></div></li> <li> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">4</span><span>개 동시 일치 확률 = 1/2175 × 1/2175 × 1/2175 × 1/2175 =</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;"> 22</span><span>조 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">3,788</span><span>억 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1,289</span><span>만분의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span></div></li> <li> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">5</span><span>개 동시 일치 확률 이상은 참담한 수준</span></div></li> <li> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;"> </span><div><span>20개 전체 일치 확률 =</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;"> 1/2175 × 1/2175 × 1/2175 × ... </span><span>동시 사건 확률이므로 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">20</span><span>번의 곱 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">= 5.6×10</span><span>의</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">66</span><span>승분의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1 (</span><span>참고로 로또 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>등 당첨 확률이 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">814</span><span>만 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">5</span><span>천 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">60</span><span>십분의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>이므로 그보다 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">6.9×10</span><span>의</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">59</span><span>승 더 어려운 확률</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">)</span></div></div></li></ul><div>  <div></div></div> <div><span>결론 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">: </span><span>컨테이너 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>개 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>면의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">RCS</span><span>가 세월호의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">0.55~0.68 </span><span>정도의 값을 갖는다고 가정해도</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">(80~100m </span><span>크기</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">) </span><span>그 컨테이너 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>개가 레이더 각도와 일치하여 괴물체로 나타날 확률은 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">2175</span><span>분의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>임</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">.</span></div> <div><span>또 분석관님의 주장대로 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">20</span><span>여개의 컨테이너가 어울려 각각 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">6</span><span>개의 면이 따로따로 다채로운 각도를 형성한다 해도</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">(</span><span>이 주장은 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">20</span><span>여개가 한 무더기라는 전제 조건과 모순</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">) 20</span><span>개 중 컨테이너의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>면이 레이더 안테나 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">5.5m</span><span>와 일치할 확률은 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1/2175 + 1/2175 + 1/2175 + ... </span><span>따로 사건 확률이므로 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">20</span><span>번의 합 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">= 109</span><span>분의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1 (단, 컨테이너 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">1</span><span>면의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">RCS</span><span>값이 세월호의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">0.55~0.68</span><span>이어야 하는 조건) (수정, 109분의 1 => <font color="#ff0000">163분의 1</font><font color="#000000">)</font></span></div> <div>  <div></div></div> <div><span>논리의 모순까지 진행하기 전에</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">, </span><span>컨테이너가 괴물체라는 명제는 확률 실험에서 거짓으로 판명 났으므로 이미 기각됐음</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">.</span></div> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;"></span> </div> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">ps;</span></div> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">정당한 반론을 언제든지 환영합니다.</span></div> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;"></span> </div> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">수정;</span></div> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">컨테이너 1개의 확률치를 <font color="#339966"><strong>1/2175</strong> </font>에서 <font color="#ff0000"><strong>1/3262.5</strong> </font>로 수정합니다. <span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">(</span><span>이유 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">: </span><span>물 위의 육면체는 두 면</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">(</span><span>아랫면과 윗면</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">)</span><span>이 레이더의 사각지대</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">) - </span></span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;">컨테이너가 될 확률은 더 멀어짐. 결과가 바뀌지 않으므로 본문 내용을 그대로 유지함.)</span></span></div> <div><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;"></span></span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;"></span> </div></div></td></tr><tr><td height="30"></td></tr><tr><td align="center"><a target="_blank" href="http://surprise.or.kr/board/view.php?table=surprise_13&uid=11503" target="_blank">http://surprise.or.kr/board/view.php?table=surprise_13&uid=11503</a></td></tr><tr><td height="30"></td></tr></tbody></table>