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AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><img src="http://thimg.todayhumor.co.kr/upfile/201603/1458662076F5kKzovOCg.jpg" width="800" alt="슬라이드57.JPG" class="chimg_photo tcx_image" style="border:none;vertical-align:middle;max-width:800px;height:auto;" filesize="58322"></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><img src="http://thimg.todayhumor.co.kr/upfile/201603/1458662076R6dM4XeVM2RMMd7co8vZEMgXV3.jpg" width="800" alt="슬라이드58.JPG" class="chimg_photo tcx_image" style="border:none;vertical-align:middle;max-width:800px;height:auto;" filesize="56059"></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><img src="http://thimg.todayhumor.co.kr/upfile/201603/1458662077Not816TAsDNMuNL4pCfsw.jpg" width="800" alt="슬라이드59.JPG" class="chimg_photo tcx_image" style="border:none;vertical-align:middle;max-width:800px;height:auto;" filesize="75274"></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><img src="http://thimg.todayhumor.co.kr/upfile/201603/1458662078GkGswhPhTYWc9j8ah1Qr8tCmcjEqh.jpg" width="800" alt="슬라이드60.JPG" class="chimg_photo tcx_image" style="border:none;vertical-align:middle;max-width:800px;height:auto;" filesize="75213"></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><img src="http://thimg.todayhumor.co.kr/upfile/201603/1458662088xsaOTbj7tup5uV1KDDnumnJq.jpg" width="800" alt="슬라이드61.JPG" class="chimg_photo tcx_image" style="border:none;vertical-align:middle;max-width:800px;height:auto;" filesize="76313"></div><br style="color:#333333;font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;"><div><font color="#333333" face="gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif"><a target="_blank" href="https://www.facebook.com/Dribint/" target="_blank">https://www.facebook.com/Dribint/</a></font></div> <div><font color="#333333" face="gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif"><br></font></div> <div><font color="#333333" face="gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif"><br></font></div> <div><font color="#333333" face="gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif">위 글은 이전 오유 게시글입니다. </font></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;">저기서 통계랑 칸트를 연관시켰는데 </div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;">맨 아래 단원은 경험론이랑 궤를 약간 달리하는 문제라고 생각함. </div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;">그래서 저 부분만 따로 떼서 한번 다루어 봄.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;">이 논의가 역사적으로 어떤 맥락에서 탄생했을까를 이해하려면 1748년 영국의 분위기를 살펴봐야 함.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;">당대는 신이 모든 것의 제1원인이라고 여기고 있었을 시절임. </div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;">당시 흄은 경험을 통한 것에만 의존할 수 있다는 에세이를 발표하고, 거기서 <span style="font-size:9pt;">현재의 모습으로 설계되었다는 사실이 창조자의 존재를 입증하는 것이 아니라고 주장함. </span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;">아울러 "특정한 원인이 특정한 결과를 가져온다는 사실에 대해 확인할 수 있는 것이 거의 없으므로 그럴듯한 원인과 결과를 찾아내는데 만족해야한다"는 주장을 했었는데, <span style="font-size:9pt;">이 주장을 수학적으로 처리할 방법을 모색한 것이 베이즈 정리가 탄생한 계기가 됨. </span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;">당시 확률론은 도박에만 적용되던 시절임. </div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;">확률론은 원인에서 결과로 가는 방식으로의 접근을 먼저 시도하였음. 가령 누군가 에이스 4장을 연속으로 세번 가질 확률은 얼마인가? 같은 것임.(<span style="color:#222222;font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px;">1718년에 드무아브르는 175쪽의 《확률론》(</span><span style="color:#222222;font-family:sans-serif;font-size:smaller;"><a target="_blank" href="https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%98%81%EC%96%B4" title="영어" style="color:#0b0080;background:none;" target="_blank">영어</a>: </span><span lang="en" style="color:#222222;font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px;">The doctrine of chances</span><span style="color:#222222;font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px;">) 초판을 출판하였으며 이 책이 확률론의 초기 저서임.)</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;">그런데, 어떤 이가 세판 연속으로 에이스를 가졌다면 어떤 기회가 개입했었을까 라는 질문이 나왔을 경우는 어떻게 접근해야 할까? 밑장을 뺐을까 마킹카드일까? 등등.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;">베이즈라는 신부는 이 문제를 해결하는 방법에 '역확률의 법칙'이라는 이름을 붙임.  </div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;">위 그림에서의 검사 방식은</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;">a: 질병에 걸린다 b:어떤 검사에 양성반응을 보인다.에서</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;">우리가 흔히 접하는 조사 방식은 a->b임 (질병에 걸린 사람 중 양성 반응을 보이는 사람을 확인하는 방향이며, 이는 해당 검사 수단의 신뢰도로서 미리 수치가 제시 됨. 하지만 <span style="font-size:9pt;">어떤 질병에 걸린다고 반드시 해당 검사에 양성을 보이는 것은 아니고, 특히 메르스 같이 역사적으로 많은 사람이 걸린 병이 아닌 경우나 갑자기 감염자가 발생하는 경우는 제시되는 수치의 신뢰도가 낮음)</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;">유방암 양성이라고 천청벽력 같은 검사 결과를 통보 받은 개인에게 필요한 것은 양성 반응을 보인 사람 중 질병에 걸린 사람의 비율임. (검사 수단은 a->b인 방식에 대한 통계 자료 밖에 없음. 유방암인지 아닌지 몰라서 검사를 시행한 개인에게 있어서는 의미가 없음.)</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;">즉, b가 나타난 사람 중 a가 나타날 확률임.</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;">베이즈는 이 확률을 찾는 방식을 발견했다는 것임. </span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;">위 그림에서 수학적으로 증명된다고 그랬는데...딱히 수학적으로 접근하지 않아도 p(a l b)와 p(b la)가 다르다는 것은 알 수 있을 거라고 생각함.</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;">가령 위의 연구 방법은 담배 피는 사람 중 폐암에 걸린 사람을 통계적으로 파악하였음.</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><img src="http://thimg.todayhumor.co.kr/upfile/201603/1458662045RzbKDbOxpSo34HGD.jpg" alt="ì¬ë¼ì´ë39.JPG"></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><img src="http://thimg.todayhumor.co.kr/upfile/201603/1458662045agghs5DhTxI5XMrEeLTz.jpg" alt="ì¬ë¼ì´ë40.JPG"></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;">베이즈의 접근 방법은 어떤 사람이 폐암에 걸렸을 경우, 그 사람이 흡연자 일 확률을 흡연자 중 폐암에 걸린 사람의 수를 통해 찾는 거임. </span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:9pt;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br></div>