<div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;">제가 내린 결론부터 말씀을 드릴게요.</div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;">저는 몇 가지 근거를 들어서...</div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br style="padding:0px;margin:0px;"></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:Gungsuh, '궁서', serif;padding:0px;margin:0px;font-size:14pt;color:#ff0000;">"운영진은 아이템 합성 확률을</span><span style="font-family:Gungsuh, '궁서', serif;padding:0px;margin:0px;font-size:14pt;color:#ff0000;"> 조작했다고 확신합니다.</span><span style="font-family:Gungsuh, '궁서', serif;padding:0px;margin:0px;font-size:14pt;color:#ff0000;">"</span><br style="padding:0px;margin:0px;"></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br style="padding:0px;margin:0px;"></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;">하지만,</div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;">이러한 잠수함 패치는 <u style="padding:0px;margin:0px;">악의적인 확률 조작은 아니었던 것</u>으로 보입니다.<br style="padding:0px;margin:0px;"></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br style="padding:0px;margin:0px;"></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;">아이템 합성의 확률에는 운영팀이 의도치 않은 버그가 일부 존재했었고,<br style="padding:0px;margin:0px;"></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;">그걸 없애는 일종의 버그 패치는 있었던 것으로 추정되고 있는 것이지요.</div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br style="padding:0px;margin:0px;"></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;">그러한 버그의 잔재(?)가 드러나는 대표적인 사례가 바로,</div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:21px;text-align:center;">3레어 2언커 합성법 입니다.</div></div> <div><br></div> <div><br></div> <div><br></div> <div> <hr></div> <div><br></div> <div><br></div> <div><br></div> <div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">사이퍼즈에서 많이 쓰이는 대표적인 아이템 합성법들이 몇몇 있습니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">예를 들자면 1유닉 1레어, 2레어 3언커, 2유닉, 4언커...</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">그러한 합성법들에도 잘 알려지지 않은 것도 있고, 다소 변천사도 있었습니다만...</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;">각자 그 나름대로 필요성과 가치를 인정받는 이유를 가지고 있는데요.</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">그런 것들 중에서도!</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">다소 기형적(?)으로 존재하고 행해지는 합성법이 하나 있습니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">바로 레어 셋, 언커먼 둘을 넣고 풀투자<font color="#7f7f7f">(혹은 그보다 낮은 투자)</font>로 합성을 하는!</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">통칭, <font size="4"><b><font color="#7030a0">3레어</font> <font color="#4f81bd">2언커</font></b></font>로 불리우는 합성법이지요.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;text-align:center;"><img src="http://pub.cyphers.co.kr/images2/tip/2014/03/23/1395507893581.jpg" class="txc-image tcx_image" alt="" style="border:0px;max-width:800px;height:auto;font-family:dotum;padding:0px;margin:0px;vertical-align:top;color:#444444;letter-spacing:-1px;line-height:normal;float:none;clear:none;width:660px;"></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;text-align:center;"><font color="#7f7f7f">['제피 아너스'의 플레이버 텍스트(Flavor text)에도 언급되고 있는 3레어 2언커 합성법]</font></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;text-align:center;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">많이 쓰이는 거의 모든 합성법들은 아래와 같은 공통점을 가지고 있습니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"> "한정적인 높은 등급 아이템(레어, 유니크)을 적게 쓰면서,</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">  비교적 구하기 쉬운 합성비용(달러, 주화)에 많은 투자를 해서,</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">  합성예상이 높아질 수 있는 가성비가 뛰어난 시도를 한다는 것."</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">그런데, 3레어 2언커 합성은 그러한 틀을 벗어나고 있습니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">왜냐?</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">비슷한 합성법인 2레어 3언커 합성을 하더라도,</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">유니크가 나올 확률은 '보통'으로 동일한데... <span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;">굳이 3레어 2언커 합성을 시도할 이유가 없다는 것이죠.</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">뭐... 실제로 유니크가 나올 확률은 3레어 2언커가 조금 더 높은 것은 사실입니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">합성예상이 변동되지 않더라도, 추가 투자에 따른 확률 증가는 있거든요.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">제가 조사하고 종합한 비교적 최근의 통계에 따르면...</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">2레어 3언커의 경우, 유니크가 나올 확률이 약 20%</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">3레어 2언커의 경우, 유니크가 나올 확률은 약 25%</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">문제는 레어를 하나 더 투자하는 것치곤 5% 밖에 오르지 않으니...</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">레어 하나에 유니크 확률이 7~7.5% 정도인 셈이라고 할 수 있죠?</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">그에 반해 2레어 3언커의 경우 유니크가 나올 확률이 20%.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">즉, 레어 하나에 유니크 확률이 10% 정도 되는 셈입니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">자, 그럼 이렇게 별로 득 될 것도 없는!</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">이 합성법은 어떻게 알려지게 되었을까요?</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">3레어 2언커의 확률, 2레어 3언커보다 확률보다 '훨씬' 높다는 증거... 있을까요?</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">네, 놀랍게도 있습니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">(이하 닉언죄)</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">공략게시판에 올린 Reinvert 님의 글인 <a target="_blank" href="http://cyphers.nexon.com/cyphers/article/tip/topic/5599105" style="color:#0000FF;text-decoration:none;">합성확률을 실험해보았다.jpg</a> (이후 표본을 추가하여 올리신 글은 <a target="_blank" href="http://gall.dcinside.com/board/view/?id=cyphers&no=1259044&page=" style="color:#0000FF;text-decoration:none;">DC샆갤</a>)</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">...에서 3레어 2언커의 유니크 확률은 39%(32/82)로,</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">2레어 3언커의 유니크 확률인 19%(52/275)에 비해서 두 배 이상 높았으며!</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">심지어 언커먼이 나올 확률도 9%. 2레어 3언커일 때 21%을 기록한 것에 비해서 두 배 이상 낮았습니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">이것 하나로는 이 분의 뭔가 실험이 잘못 되었거나...</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">기타 통계상에서 발생한 오류라고 생각할 수도 있습니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">그러나,</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;">하나 더 있었죠.</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">오유 사퍼게시판 페나리알(前 아타나토스) 님의 글인 <a target="_blank" href="http://www.todayhumor.co.kr/board/view.php?table=humorbest&no=664653&s_no=664653&kind=member&page=1&member_kind=humorbest&mn=113090" style="color:#0000FF;text-decoration:none;">합성 확률</a>에도 역시 비슷한 결과가 나옵니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">3레어 풀투자의 경우 유니크 확률이 79번의 표본의 결과, 유니크 확률이 37%에 이른다구요.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">이 글에서는 표본은 각각 30여개 정도로 많지 않지만... 4레어, 5레어의 경우도 언급이 됩니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">그 확률이 각각 45%, 58%로 엄청나게 높은 확률로 추정되는 모습을 보이지요.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">이런 글을 보면 3레어 2언커의 확률이 2레어 3언커의 확률에 비해서 압도적으로 높다는 것이 사실처럼 보입니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">자, 대체 왜 이런 통계값은...</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">그러니까 상식적으로도 불가능하고 실제 통계(<a target="_blank" href="http://cyphers.nexon.com/cyphers/article/tip/topic/7394739" style="color:#0000FF;text-decoration:none;">멋딩</a>)나 체감으로 느끼는 것과 멀게 존재하는 것일까요?</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">저는 간단한 추리를 해봤습니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><font size="4"><b>실제로 3레어 2언커의 유니크 확률은 '<font color="#ff0000">높았었던</font>'<font color="#7f7f7f"> </font><span style="line-height:1.5;">것이 아닌가... 하고 말이죠.</span></b></font></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">그리고 그 증거는 다시 <span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;">Reinvert 님의 글에서도 어느정도 추리할 수 있었습니다.</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;">약 한 달 뒤, <a target="_blank" href="http://gall.dcinside.com/board/view/?id=cyphers&no=1259044&page=" style="color:#0000FF;text-decoration:none;">표본이 82에서 125개로 증가</a>하자... 유니크 확률은 34%로 감소한 것이 바로 그것이죠.</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">43회의 합성이 추가적으로 진행이 되었는데, 이 때의 3레어 2언커의 유니크 확률은 제가 조사한 것과 비슷한 수치.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">그러니까... 약 23%(10/43)가 나오죠.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">오히려 제가 조사한 값보다 더 낮게 나온 셈이죠.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">페나리알 님의 게시물 역시, <span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;">Reinvert 님과 비슷한 시기에 게시가 되었으며...</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;">게시글에도 구체적으로 '최근 1년간 데이터'를 조사했다고 밝히고 있습니다.</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">그러나 이후(2013년 7월)의 게시물인 멋딩 님의 <a target="_blank" href="http://cyphers.nexon.com/cyphers/article/tip/topic/7394739" style="color:#0000FF;text-decoration:none;">아이템 합성 팁 -[1]</a>에서는 정상적인 결과(약 25%)가 나옵니다.</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">또 하나 더,</div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;">Reinvert 님의 게시물은 추천을 매우 많이(무려 49개!) 받은 게시물임에도 불구하고,</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;">오늘의 사이퍼즈에 등록되지 않았습니다.</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;"><br></span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;">그래서 아래와 같은 결론을 낼 수 있었죠.</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;text-align:center;"><strike>다들 좋아하는 그 유명한 세줄요약</strike></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;text-align:center;"><font face="궁서" size="4"><b> "비정상적으로 <font color="#ff0000">3레어 2언커의 유니크 확률이 높았던 것은 버그</font>였고!</b></font></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;text-align:center;"><font face="궁서" size="4"><b><br></b></font></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;text-align:center;"><font face="궁서" size="4"><b> 추천수가 높은 Reinvert 님의 게시물을 보고 그러한 확률 버그를 뒤늦게 인지한 조커팀은,</b></font></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;text-align:center;"><font face="궁서" size="4"><b><br></b></font></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;text-align:center;"><font face="궁서" size="4"><b> </b></font><b style="font-family:'궁서';font-size:large;line-height:27px;">3레어 2언커의 확률을 비정상적이지 않도록,</b><b style="font-family:'궁서';font-size:large;line-height:1.5;"> 2013년 2월~3월 사이에 <font color="#ff0000">잠수함 패치</font>했다."</b></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">네,<span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:1.5;"> 2레어 3언커 합성하세요.</span></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;"><br></div> <div style="font-family:gulim, Dotum, Helvetica, AppleGothic, sans-serif;line-height:21.6000003814697px;">이상입니다.</div></div>