<font size="4">*구글느님의 도움을 받아 여기저기 참고하여 작성한 자료입니다. </font> <p style="line-height:120%;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="line-height:120%;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-weight:bold;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">1. </span><span style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">개요</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">최근 바젤</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">3 </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">협약에 따라 재무구조 개선을 위해 발행한 후순위채</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">(</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">코코본드</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">) </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">이자 지급 못할 것이라는 우려로 도이치뱅크 등 유럽 주요은행 주가 역대 최저치 이탈</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">*</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">바젤</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">3 </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">협약</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">금융기관</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">(</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">은행</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"></span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">)</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">의 총 자본비율을 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">2019</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">년까지 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">14% </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">이상으로 유지</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">*</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">코코본드</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">회사가 어려울 때 채권에서 주식으로 바꿀 수 있는 조건부 자본증권</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">회사채이면서 자본으로 분류되기 때문에 바젤</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">3 </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">규제에 따라 자본 건전성을 높여야 하는 은행들이 대거 발행</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-weight:bold;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">2. </span><span style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">현황</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">- </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">독일의 도이치뱅크</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">, </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">스위스의 크레디트스위스</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">, </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">이탈리아의 유니크레디트 등이 모두 코코본드 이자 지급 우려로 연중 최저치 또는 역대 최저치 주가 기록</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">- </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">유로존의 저금리 기조가 이어지면서 은행 수익성 악화로 이자 지급 여력이 어렵다는 우려로 주요 은행들 주가 하락</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">- 2015</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">년 하반기 유럽은행감독청 조사에 따르면 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">EU </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">회원국과 유럽의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">105</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">개 주요 은행 대상 조사결과 부실채권 규모는 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">1340</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">조 원에 육박 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">/ </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">특히 이탈리아는 전체 대출의 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">17%</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">가 부실채권</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">- ECB</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">는 마이너스 금리 폭을 더 키울 예정</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">, </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">마이너스 금리 폭이 증가하면 은행의 수익성은 악화되고 코코본드 이자 지급 여력은 어려워지는 악순환 발생</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> <br></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <div style="text-align:left;"><img width="567" height="298" style="border:medium none;" alt="01 (1).jpg" src="http://thimg.todayhumor.co.kr/upfile/201602/1455239716bXZd3Pqf6awFES.jpg"></div> <p></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">유럽 주요 은행들의 위기 지수 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">(2016.2.8 </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">기준</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">)</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">* </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">위기 지수는 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">2010</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">년 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">4</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">월 이후 최대치로 급등</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <div style="text-align:left;"><img width="567" height="281" style="border:medium none;" alt="02 (1).jpg" src="http://thimg.todayhumor.co.kr/upfile/201602/1455239781MrbE1QVZA7iCkQdrGHU.jpg"></div><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">유럽 주요 은행들의 주가 평균치 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">(2016.2.8 </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">기준</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">)</span> <p></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <div style="text-align:left;"><img width="567" height="295" style="border:medium none;" alt="03 (1).jpg" src="http://thimg.todayhumor.co.kr/upfile/201602/1455239796YAFCSfUpl4BESj6nI9XnZrPHf.jpg"></div><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">유럽 주요 은행들의 국채 위기 지수 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">(2016.2.8 </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">기준</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">)</span> <p></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-weight:bold;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">3. </span><span style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">도이치뱅크 위기</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">- </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">독일 최대 상업은행 도이치뱅크의 파생상품이 역대 최대치를 기록 </span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">(97</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">조 달러로 독일 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">GDP 15</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">배</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">, </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">유로존 전체 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">GDP 5</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">배 규모</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">)</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">- </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">도이치뱅크 파생상품이 폭발할 경우 제</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">2</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">의 리먼브라더스 사태가 발생</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">- </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">이 이유로 도이치뱅크 위기설에 따라 유럽 전체의 주가가 들썩이고 있음</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">- </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">도이치뱅크는 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">2015</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">년 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">68</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">억 유로의 손실 기록</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">- CEO</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">가 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">2</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">월 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">10</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">일</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">, </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">회사채를 다시 살 수 있을 정도로 자금 여력이 좋다는 발언을 하며 낙폭 축소</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">- 2</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">월 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">18</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">일 있는 유로존 정상회담에서 마이너스 금리를 더 키울 가능성 언급이 있으면</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">, </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">도이치뱅크 위기설은 다시 대두되면서 유럽 은행에 대한 매도폭탄이 나올 가능성 있음 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">(</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">금리 결정하는 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">ECB </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">통화정책 회의는 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">2</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">월은 없고</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">, 3</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">월에 예정</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">)</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">- </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">은행 위기 시 </span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">ECB</span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">는 도이치뱅크 및 주요 은행들의 파산을 막기 위해 대규모 양적완화를 시행할 것으로 전망</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">, </span><span style="font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">문제는 양적완화로 찍어낸 유로가 실물 경제에 스며들지 못하고 주요 은행들의 위기를 극복하는 것에 사용되면서 양적완화가 무용지물이 될 가능성 있음</span></p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"> </p> <p style="background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;"><span style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">결론</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-weight:bold;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">) </span><span style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">도이치뱅크가 유럽 경제를 흔들 수 있는 폭탄을 갖고 있음</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-weight:bold;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">. </span><span style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">도이치뱅크 관련 이슈가 대두되면 글로벌 증시는 제</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-weight:bold;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">2</span><span style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">의 리먼사태처럼 급락 가능성 존재</span><span lang="en-us" style="font-family:'굴림';letter-spacing:0pt;font-weight:bold;font-size:12pt;background:#ffffff none repeat scroll 0% 0%;">.</span></p><br>