출처 :<a target="_blank" href="http://ilwar.com/bestbest/141022" target="_blank"> http://ilwar.com/bestbest/141022</a> <div><a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/nobody_indepth/" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/nobody_indepth/</a><br><div>일간워스트 <span style="font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">nobodyindepth님</span></div> <div><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br></span></div> <div><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">==</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">옛날부터 언론에서 보여주고 있는 선거결과 지도들에 대해서 매우 불만이 많았습니다. 두괄식으로, 대중이 선거결과를 파악하는데 호도하는 면이 매우 컸다고 생각하고, 그래서 추후 선거에도 부정적인 영향을 줬다고 생각합니다(사표심리 등등).</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><b style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">(1) all-or-nothing 지도. </b><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">1표차로 당선되었다고 하더라도 똑같은 강도로 채색하는 것은, 정치지형을 실재보다 훨씬 더 분극된 것으로 만듭니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><img src="http://i2.media.daumcdn.net/photo-media/201406/05/mediadaum/20140605064820907.jpeg" alt="" style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">통상적으로 보는 지도</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a target="_blank" href="http://t.co/2lZEp4IVR4" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpXQ8cEIEAAoBiV.jpg" alt=""><br></a><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">새누리당 득표율 정보를 채도에 기입</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">이렇게 득표율을 이극으로 해서 채도에 득표율차를 반영하면, 실제로 영호남지역의 강한 지역정당색이랑, 중부권의 훨씬 유동성이 강한 경향을 한 눈에 파악할 수 있습니다. 그 가운데 대구와 부산의 결과가 얼마나 놀라운지, 강원의 영동/영서 구분 등이 눈에 들어옵니다. </span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">그리고, 각 지역별 선거의 경우, 자기의 표값이 얼마나 큰지 파악해볼 수 있겠지요(사실 좀 개선의 여지가 있는 지도입니다. 호남의 경우 새누리당후보의 비율이라는 건 별로 의미가 없으니까요)</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a target="_blank" href="http://t.co/DBn74Zr4Az" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaEMbDIcAAsjJq.jpg" alt=""><br></a><a class="auto" href="http://t.co/TdxQQRuyOj" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaEpFOIMAEdUTF.jpg" alt=""><br></a><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">비례대표로 봐도, 적어도 영호남의 contrast 안에서도 minor하지만 일정정도의 세를 힐끔 살펴볼 수 있습니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">어쨌든 그래서 당장 "경기도민들 바보멍충이"라든가, "강원도는 빨갱이집단에 당했냐"라는 소릴 하지 못하게 되죠.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a class="auto" href="http://t.co/2lZEp4IVR4" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpXQ8aoIMAEwr2b.jpg" alt=""><br></a><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">위에서 보시다시피 수도권을 확대해서 보면, 경기도라고 다 같지 않다는 것을 파악하게 됩니다. 경기도는 전형적인 여촌야도 구도라고 할 수 있지요.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><b style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">(2) 인구밀도와 선거구 투표자수 차이 문제 </b><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">사 실 그래도 불만족스러운 것이 바로 이 여촌야도 현상때문에, 도시지역이 상대적으로 득표 등에서 인상에 손해를 보는 것입니다. 여기에 각 선거구별 인구수 차이가 몇 배에 달하는 점도 더해지지요. 미국에서도 이를 보정하기 위해서 </span><a target="_blank" href="http://www.gislounge.com/post-election-maps-for-the-2012-presidential-election/" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank">여러 시도들</a><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">이 이뤄져왔으나, 지금까지 만족스러운 결과를 보지 못했습니다. 그나마 지도를 인구수비례로 바꿔버리는 건 미국에선 좀 되는 편인 것 같은데, </span><a target="_blank" href="http://scienceon.hani.co.kr/74863" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank">한국은 작고 행정구역들이 오밀조밀하게 모여있어서 지도를 인구수대비 구겨넣는 작업이 어렵습니다</a><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">예를 들어서,</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a class="auto" style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpZ7fw2IUAAoxMj.jpg" alt=""><br></a><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">이렇게 보면 기초단체장 선거에서 새정치민주연합당이 새누리당에 "완패"한 인상이 드나, </span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a class="auto" style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpZ92YiCcAAAOrP.jpg" alt=""><br></a><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">수도권에 엄청나게 집중된 인구밀도로 같은 규모의 기초단체보다 더 적다는 잘못된 인상에, 호남지역에서 무소속 돌풍으로 인한 상실 (새누리당이 아님)때문에 새정련이 실재보다 훨씬 더 패배한 것처럼 보이는 (숫자상으로) 영향이 있습니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">이를 좀더 개선해보고자, 1-2위 후보자의 절대 투표수를, 선거구의 면적으로 나눠서, 일종의 투표차밀도라는 개념을 시험해보고자 했습니다. 하지만 이 경우, 우리가 인식하는 채도가 완전히 선형관계가 아니기때문에, 인구밀도가 아주 낮은 지역은 채도가 거의 사라져버릴 것을 우려했습니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ilwar.com/poli/pic.twitter.com/clwS1ipv3S" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaVZ2hIAAAYD5f.jpg" alt=""><br></a><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">역시나 넓은 선거구들은 거의 안 보이지만, 그 동안 우리의 인식이 편향될 걸 생각하면, 왜 사람들이 서울, 부산 그러는지 알만한 결과가 아닐까 싶습니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">비례대표선거 말고 광영지자체후보 득표율로도 그려봤습니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a target="_blank" href="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpZIj92CQAAtfNX.jpg" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpZIj92CQAAtfNX.jpg" alt=""><br></a><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">그리고 서울이 경기도 안에 있는 외로운 섬처럼 보이는 문제도 일정부분 해결이 됩니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaWAqiCUAEIluk.jpg" alt="" style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">반면 득표율 차이로는 선전했다는 평가를 받는 영남도, 역시나 인구규모때문에 절대 표차로 보면 적지 않은 표차가 있음을 다시 확인해볼 수 있습니다. </span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">우리가 인식하는 채도가 완전히 선형적이지 않다는 점때문에, 잠정적으로 표차밀도를 log-scale로 바꿔봤습니다. 이게 과연 잘하는 짓인지, 개념적으로 좋은지 확신이 안 서지만, 적어도 너무 넓은 선거구들의 편차들이 전혀 안 보이는 문제는 일정 정도 해결해주는 것 같습니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a class="auto" href="https://twitter.com/nobody_indepth/statuses/474732869609590784" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank"><img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaXB1QCAAAZPHA.jpg" alt=""></a><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">역시나 인구집중된 서울의 무게가 좀더 느껴지구요, </span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a target="_blank" href="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaXa4rCMAAJfhi.jpg" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaXa4rCMAAJfhi.jpg" alt=""></a><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">수도권에서도 호각지세였다는 느낌이 좀더 사는 것 같습니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">영호남의 몰표경향을 득표율차로 봐서 비판하는 사람들이 많은데요,</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaX-5WCIAAWcuR.jpg" alt="" style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">영남과</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a target="_blank" href="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaYmzICcAItrYR.jpg" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaYmzICcAItrYR.jpg" alt=""><br></a><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">호남을 보시면 기본적으로 부산/대구/울산의 중량을 호남의 밀도가 낮은 광주가 버티지 못한다는 느낌은 전달되어 옵니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">영호남 얘기가 나와서 말인데, 표값이 가장 쎈 지역이란, 1/2위 후보자의 득표율이 비슷한 곳을 말할 것입니다. 그래야 제 선택에 따라 선거결과가 바뀔 확률이 (물론 수학적으로 계산하면 여전히 미스테리지만) 좀더 높으니까요.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a target="_blank" href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpayJMTIAAAtVuN.jpg" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpayJMTIAAAtVuN.jpg" alt=""></a><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">보시다시피, 호남을 뭐라하는 것만큼이나, 영남, 특히 경북은 일당의 힘이 매우 강하다는 것을 느껴볼 수 있습니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a target="_blank" href="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpayJVSCQAA9UU8.jpg" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpayJVSCQAA9UU8.jpg" alt=""><br></a><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">이에 비해 서울, 도시지역으로 갈수록 그런 차이가 적다는 걸 파악할 수 있습니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a target="_blank" href="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpayHndIgAAPcFN.jpg" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpayHndIgAAPcFN.jpg" alt=""><br></a><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><b style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">3. 기타</b><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">기타로, 슥슥 거리면 선거후 여러 이슈들에 대해서 살짝 생각해볼 여유가 생깁니다. 이를테면 경기도의 무효표가 통진당 후보자의 사퇴로 높았기때문에 야권이 아쉬웠다는 얘기에, 음 무효표의 전국분포는 어떻게 되나 그려볼 수 있습니다.</span><a target="_blank" href="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaehLCIEAACuGd.jpg" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaehLCIEAACuGd.jpg" alt=""></a><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">울산쪽에도 뭔 일이 있었나보네요.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">또는 야권후보가 인물론으로 승부했는지, 또는 여당심판과 같은 정당에 기댄 바람에 기댔는지 생각해볼 수 있는 그림도 그려볼 수 있습니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaY-2aCEAAquzJ.jpg" alt="" style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaSVsdCAAIj1Sn.jpg" alt="" style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">최문순씨, 이시종씨의 엄청난 선전이 돋보이네요. 새정련 지지율 수준에서 보자면, 김진표씨가 선방했다고 볼 수 있지만, 다른 야권 지지표까지 볼 경우, 전체 야권표를 아주 약하지만 전부는 흡수하지 못했다는 점이 보입니다(하지만 한나라당이라느니 새정치당같은 말도 안 되는 당까지 다 합산한 것 유념. 하지만 별로 대세에 지장은 없을 듯).</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">이에 비해, 부산에서 무소속으로 출마했던 오거돈 후보의 경우에는, 무소속이 일정 부분 도움을 준 것으로 보입니다(몇 프로 안 되어도 그게 어딥니까!). 김부겸 후보는 경북고라는 학연의 무서움이 강하지 않았을까 싶습니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a class="httpstwittercomnobody_indepthstatus474729110531764224photo1" style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaTnDJIUAAy-qc.jpg" alt=""></a><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">정몽준씨는 자멸한 것이 또 수도권 그래프로 드러나구요.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/nobody_indepth/status/474728123465211904/photo/1" style="text-decoration:none;font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;" target="_blank"><img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaStlhCcAEKCax.jpg" alt=""></a><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"><span style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;">앞으로 언론사든 아니면 일반인이든, 좀더 선거결과를 입체적으로 생각해볼 더 좋은 기회들이 생기기를 바랍니다. 그게 국개론이 되었든 나라망조들었다가 되었든, 그런 약간 하위 차원의 얘기보다는 더 내실깊은 얘기를 하는 계기가 되기를 바랍니다.</span><br style="font-family:'Apple SD Gothic Neo', NanumGothic, Gulim, 'Malgun Gothic';font-size:14px;line-height:25.200000762939453px;"></div></div>
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