<header><h1 style="font-size:24px;line-height:24px;margin:0px;font-family:'Fira Sans', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, sans-serif;">South Korea’s astonishing political year</h1>18 December 2017</header><section class="content" style="max-width:740px;padding-top:.5em;"><p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:1.1em;color:#333333;">Author: Stephen Costello, Asia East</p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span style="font-size:1.1em;">It is hard to overstate the drama that has gripped the South Korean political world during the past 12 months. But </span><b><u><font size="2">the return of pragmatic democratic leadership </font></u></b><span style="font-weight:bold;font-size:1.1em;">today offers a crucial opportunity for President Moon Jae-in to reshape the perilous security situation in Northeast Asia as well as to reinvigorate South Korea’s democracy and economy.</span><span style="font-size:1.1em;"></span></p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:1.1em;"><font color="#333333">The political year really began in October 2016, when then president Park Geun-hye’s combination of corruption and incompetence propelled </font><font color="#000000">hundreds of thousands</font><font color="#333333"> of citizens onto the streets in lively but peaceful protests. On 10 March 2017, the National Assembly voted unanimously to impeach Park. Sixty days later Moon Jae-in was elected.</font></p> <div> <div style="text-align:left;"><img src="http://thimg.todayhumor.co.kr/upfile/201712/15137758083ef4018ea1344b85b60fad9ab6df157f__mn716787__w400__h265__f15851__Ym201712.jpg" width="400" height="265" alt="RTS1C3RS-400x265.jpg" style="border:none;" filesize="15851"></div><br></div> <div> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:1.1em;color:#333333;"><b>There may not be any other democracy today that could do this</b>.</p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:1.1em;color:#333333;"><b>South Koreans can be rightfully proud of this.</b> Yet it is not clear that government leaders or the policy community at large have fully digested the country’s growth or fully recognised its middle power potential. In this sense, they lag behind much of the public.</p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:1.1em;"><span style="color:#333333;">For South Korea and Northeast Asia, <u><b>the most important aspect of Moon’s election is that he is a pragmatist, not an ideologue.</b></u> <b>That makes him unique right now in Northeast Asia. His task is to advertise South Korea’s assets and insist on the country’s rightful seat at the decision making table. If the Moon government can become a channel for clear and pragmatic policies, it can then lead on critical issues such </b></span><b>as <font><span>North Korean denuclearisation</span></font> and <font><span>development</span></font>, disaster relief, clean energy and arms reduction.</b></p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:1.1em;color:#333333;">Yet to do that, impediments within South Korea’s policy space must be acknowledged and managed — some will even have to be addressed head-on. One is that conservatives fear modernism and miss the imagined certainty of the pre-democratic era. Another is that there is a persistent political and personality war among democrats that may determine how successfully Moon can shape policy debates and maintain support in the National Assembly. Moon must also cooperate with the progressive People’s Party and the Justice Party in order to push through his initiatives.</p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:1.1em;color:#333333;"><br></p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:1.1em;color:#333333;"><br></p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;"><font color="#7030a0"><font size="5" style="font-weight:bold;">There are two other challenges</font><b><u><font size="5"> that could constrain South Korean power and flexibility.</font></u></b></font><font color="#7030a0" size="5"><b><u> </u></b></font></p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;"><font color="#333333" style="font-size:1.1em;"><b>One is the radically different views that persist of South Korea’s role, power and responsibilities</b>: on one hand, a weak and dependent South Korea, and on the other, a South Korea that stands as middle power. Even the President seems torn between them; <u>Moon </u></font><u><span style="font-size:1.1em;">recently said</span><span style="font-size:1.1em;"> </span></u><font color="#333333" style="font-size:1.1em;"><u>that the regional situation ‘is not favourable to us’ </u>and that South Korea ‘has no power to resolve the current crisis or help relevant sides seek an agreement’. But he has also insisted for months that Seoul should be ‘in the driver’s seat’ on North Korea issues, and he has begun to </font><span style="font-size:1.1em;">cultivate his relationship</span><font color="#333333" style="font-size:1.1em;"> with Xi Jinping.</font></p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;"><font color="#333333" style="font-size:1.1em;"><br></font></p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:1.1em;"><b><font color="#333333">The second challenge is the </font><font color="#000000">South Korea–US alliance</font></b><font color="#333333"><b>.</b> The relationship is long overdue for readjustment and modernisation but is encountering numerous road blocks under the Trump administration. The Trump administration is an unreliable negotiating partner, and it has become hyper-sensitive to any hint of independent ambition by Seoul. While the alliance is not at risk, it sorely needs South Korea to assume greater responsibility. But US unpredictability and Trump’s bellicosity mean statements to that effect evoke nervousness among South Korean elites, and have prevented the government from advancing solutions.</font></p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;"><font color="#333333" style="font-size:1.1em;"><br></font></p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;"><font color="#333333" style="font-size:1.1em;"><br></font></p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;"><font color="#333333" style="font-size:1.1em;"><br></font></p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;"><font style="font-size:1.1em;"><font color="#333333">Where does that leave </font><b><font color="#00b050">South Korea’s foreign policy direction?</font></b> </font><b><font color="#00b050"><span style="font-size:1.1em;">President Moon needs to focus on </span><font size="5"><u>three key external relations opportunities.</u></font></font></b></p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:1.1em;"><b style="color:#333333;">First is South Korea’s regional relations. </b><font color="#333333">Moon has already begun to manage the areas in which South Korean, Chinese and Japanese interests overlap. But it would be a grave mistake for Moon to continue to urge Russia and China to punish North Korea harder. Instead, his advantage lies in his ability to </font><font color="#000000">offer a roadmap</font><font color="#333333"> for infrastructure and development that integrates the North. China, Russia and Japan would directly and amply benefit from this. Moon should also encourage diplomacy and increased global interaction with North Korea, which could form the basis for the next successful regional advancement.</font></p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:1.1em;color:#333333;"><b>Second is South Korea’s bilateral relations with North Korea. </b>South Korea’s clear interest lies in reclaiming the strategic possibilities that emerged in 2000, when the North’s proposed denuclearisation benefitted each actor and Pyongyang’s security and development were tightly linked to it. But if the government continues to pursue the false notion that maximum isolation and pressure can lead to negotiations with Kim Jong-un, then it can make no progress.</p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:1.1em;color:#333333;"><b>Third is South Korea’s alliance with the United States. </b>Due to mistakes of past US and South Korean presidents, the North Korea issue now largely defines bilateral relations. This was clear before Moon was elected. If he is to be a true friend to the United States rather than a Trump enabler, he will quickly take up leadership on Peninsular issues (which Trump has abandoned).</p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:1.1em;color:#333333;">While the United States will eventually return to positive engagement on Peninsular issues, this may take five years or more, and Moon doesn’t have time to wait. Too much of South Korea’s agenda and its immediate security depend on him moving now. Trump has shown himself to be malleable — particularly if others arrange for the US’s advantageous participation. That possibility — rather than fuelling Trump’s non-strategic, ‘tough guy’ impulses — is where Seoul and Washington’s roles can be mutually reinforcing.</p> <p style="margin:.2em 0px .8em;font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:1.1em;color:#333333;">With its US ally temporarily drained of diplomatic and institutional capacity, and with broad public support, South Korea’s leadership has never possessed this level of capability, stability and flexibility. How and whether it is used will greatly impact regional dynamics in coming months and years. Will the government use its unprecedented power to play a decisive and positive role in 2018?</p></div> <div><br></div> <div><br></div> <div><br></div> <div>.</div> <div>.</div> <div>(요약)</div> <div><span style="font-size:9pt;">실용적이고 민주적인 리더십</span><span style="font-size:9pt;">(문재인대통령)</span><span style="font-size:9pt;">의 복귀는</span></div> <div>동북화의 안보를 재형성하고 <span style="font-size:9pt;">남한의 민주주의와 경제를 발전시킬 중요한 기회가 제공된 것이다. </span></div> <div><span style="font-size:9pt;">.</span></div> <div>평화집회,박근혜탄핵,문재인당선</div> <div>결코 다른 국민들은 이루지 못할 것들이다. </div> <div>대한민국국민들은 매우 자랑스러워한다. </div> <div><br></div> <div>(특별히 중요한 부분만 발췌)</div> <div><span style="font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:13.2px;color:#333333;"><b> </b><u>the most important aspect of Moon’s election is that he is a pragmatist, not an ideologue.</u> That makes him unique right now in Northeast Asia. His task is to advertise South Korea’s assets and insist on the country’s rightful seat at the decision making table. If the Moon government can become a channel for clear and pragmatic policies, it can then lead on critical issues such </span><span style="font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:13.2px;">as <span>North Korean denuclearisation</span> and <span>development</span>, disaster relief, clean energy and arms reduction.</span></div> <div><span style="font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:13.2px;">(문재인당선의 가장 중요한 면은 그는 <b>실용주의자라는 것</b>이다. </span></div> <div><span style="font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:13.2px;">이데올로기가가 아니다. </span><span style="font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:13.2px;">(뜬금없는 사상에서 허우적대는 사람이 아니라는 뜻인 듯?)</span></div> <div><span style="font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:13.2px;">이것이 동북아에서 그를 특별하게 만든다.</span></div> <div><span style="font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:13.2px;">그의 역할은 남한이 가진 것을 알리고 정당한 권리를 주장하는 것이다. </span></div> <div><span style="font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:13.2px;">만약 문재인정부가 명확하고 실용적인 정책의 채널을 만들어 낸다면 </span></div> <div><span style="font-family:'Open Sans', Verdana, sans-serif;font-size:13.2px;">북한 비핵화와 발전,질병구호,클린에너지,무기감축같은 비판적이슈들을 리드할 수 있다.)</span></div> <div><br></div> <div>지금 대한민국에는 </div> <div>두가지 도전과 세가지 기회가 있다.</div> <div>(뒤의 내용은 우리가 흔히 아는 미국-중국-일본-북한의 외교적인 측면에서 분석한 것)블라블라 </div> <div><br></div> <div><br></div> <div>.</div> <div>.</div> <div>근데 확실히 </div> <div>외신은 사진 선정 참 잘함 </div> <div>ㄱ ㄱ ㅑ</div> <div><br></div></section>