<p>최근에 인터넷이나 유튜브 댓글등을 보면 열린민주당이다 더불어시민당이다 갑론을박을 심심치 않게 보게됩니다.</p> <p>결론적으로 말씀드리면 열린+더불어 모두 편하신대로 투표하시면 됩니다.</p> <p>그런데 간혹 양당 간에 경쟁심이기도 하고 각자의 이견 때문에 여기보다 여기가 더 믿을수 있다 등의 논쟁이 벌어지기도 하지만 더불어시민당은 우선 더불어민주당에서 직접 밀어주는 정당이며 원내 의원들도 상당수 옮겨갈 것이기에 기호순번도</p> <p>앞 순번을 받을 것이고 기본적인 득표율은 더불어시민당이 더 많이 받을 것입니다.</p> <p><br></p> <p>1.더불어시민당은 더불어민주당이 직접 참여하는 플랫폼이다</p> <p>2.상대적으로 정치 저관여층이거나 열린민주당과 같은 관심을 직접 가져서 찾기전에 듣기 어려운 정보수집이 어려운 분들의 선택지가 될 것이다.</p> <p>3.더불어시민당은 더불어민주당의 중도확장까지 염두에 둔 정당이므로 아무래도 수비적이고 보수적인 스탠스일 수밖에 없다.</p> <p><br></p> <p>4.열린민주당은 민주당의 강성지지층이면서도 검찰개혁 등의 고강도개혁을 요구하는 시민들의 지지가 예상된다.</p> <p>5.기호순번에서는 밀리기에 유권자 자체의 홍보가 더 중요하다.</p> <p><br></p> <p>이 정도로 기본적인 더불어+열린민주당을 정리했습니다.</p> <p>그럼 세부적으로 들어가겠습니다.</p> <p><br></p><font face="굴림" size="3"></font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font> <table width="182" style="width:137pt;border-collapse:collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="88" style="width:66pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="94" style="width:71pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td width="182" height="22" style="border-width:.5pt;border-style:solid;border-color:#000000;width:137pt;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;" colspan="2"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">대한민국 유권자 통계</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">전체인구</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕"><font size="3"> 51,000,000 </font></font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">선거인수</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕"><font size="3"> 43,000,000 </font></font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">투표율</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">55%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">투표인수</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕"><font size="3"> 23,650,000 </font></font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">비례득표율</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">득표수</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">3%</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕"><font size="3"> 709,500 </font></font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">5%</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕"><font size="3"> 1,182,500 </font></font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">10%</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕"><font size="3"> 2,365,000 </font></font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">15%</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕"><font size="3"> 3,547,500 </font></font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">20%</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕"><font size="3"> 4,730,000 </font></font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">25%</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕"><font size="3"> 5,912,500 </font></font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">30%</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕"><font size="3"> 7,095,000 </font></font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">35%</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕"><font size="3"> 8,277,500 </font></font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">40%</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕"><font size="3"> 9,460,000 </font></font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">45%</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕"><font size="3"> 10,642,500 </font></font></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br></p> <p>인구와 선거인수 통계는 계산하기 쉽게 맞추었으며 2018 지방선거의 통계에 근접하게 정리했습니다.</p> <p>투표율은 55%안팎으로 예상을 합니다. 참고로 지난 2018지방선거는 60% 2016총선은 58%였습니다.</p> <p>이번에는 코로나와 20대의 투표포기 등이 예상되어 투표율은 더 낮을 것으로 예상하고 가정을 했습니다.</p> <p><br></p> <p>민주당 전체 지지자를 45%로 보고 더불어시민당과 열린민주당이 각자의 득표율에 따라 어떤 결과가 얻어지는 지를 살펴보겠습니다.</p><font face="굴림" size="3"></font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font 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</font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font> <table width="255" style="width:192pt;border-collapse:collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="42" style="width:32pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="125" style="width:94pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="88" style="width:66pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td width="167" height="22" style="border:0px #000000;width:126pt;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;" colspan="2"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">더불어시민당 라인업</font></td> <td width="88" style="border:0px #000000;width:66pt;background-color:transparent;"></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border:.5pt solid;height:16.5pt;background-color:#757171;"><font color="#ffffff" face="맑은 고딕" size="3">순번</font></td> <td style="border-width:.5pt .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:solid solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF;background-color:#757171;"><font color="#ffffff" face="맑은 고딕" size="3">원소속정당</font></td> <td style="border-width:.5pt .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:solid solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF;background-color:#757171;"><font color="#ffffff" face="맑은 고딕" size="3">필요득표수</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">1</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">연합1</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">3%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">2</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">연합2</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">3%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">3</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">연합3</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">5%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">4</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">연합4</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">5</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">연합1</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">10%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">6</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">연합2</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">7</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">연합3</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">8</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">연합4</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">15%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">9</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">연합1</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">20%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">10</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">연합2</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">11</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:#00b0f0;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">더불어민주당</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">12</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:#00b0f0;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">더불어민주당</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">25%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">13</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:#00b0f0;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">더불어민주당</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">14</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:#00b0f0;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">더불어민주당</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">30%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">15</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:#00b0f0;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">더불어민주당</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">16</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:#00b0f0;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">더불어민주당</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">17</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:#00b0f0;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">더불어민주당</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">35%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">18</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:#00b0f0;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">더불어민주당</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">19</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:#00b0f0;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">더불어민주당</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">40%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">20</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:#00b0f0;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">더불어민주당</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">21</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:#00b0f0;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">더불어민주당</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">22</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:#00b0f0;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">더불어민주당</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">45%</font></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br></p> <p>먼저 더불어시민당의 라인업입니다. 아직 최종확정은 아니나 11번부터 민주당후보들이 참여한다고 가정하면 25%득표부터 민주당 후보들이 본격적인 당선이 되기 시작합니다.</p> <p><br></p><font face="굴림" size="3"></font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font><font face="굴림" size="3"> </font> <table width="137" style="width:103pt;border-collapse:collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="42" style="width:32pt;"></colgroup><colgroup><col width="95" style="width:71pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td width="137" height="22" style="border-width:0px 0px .5pt;border-style:none none solid;border-color:#000000 #000000;width:103pt;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;" colspan="2"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">열린민주당</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#FFFFFF;height:16.5pt;background-color:#757171;"><font color="#ffffff" face="맑은 고딕" size="3">순번</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#FFFFFF #FFFFFF;background-color:#757171;"><font color="#ffffff" face="맑은 고딕" size="3">필요득표수</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">1</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">3%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">2</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">3%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">3</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">5%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">4</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">5</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">10%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">6</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">7</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">8</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">15%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">9</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">20%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">10</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">11</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">12</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">25%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">13</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">14</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">30%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">15</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">16</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">17</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">35%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">18</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">19</font></td> <td align="right" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">40%</font></td></tr><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt;border-style:none solid solid;border-color:#000000;height:16.5pt;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3">20</font></td> <td style="border-width:0px .5pt .5pt 0px;border-style:none solid solid none;border-color:#000000 #000000;background-color:transparent;"><font face="맑은 고딕" size="3"> </font></td></tr></tbody></table><p>열린민주당은 심플합니다. 비례후보가 20명이므로 40%득표만 얻으면 19번까지 당선되며 경우에따라선 20번 전원 당선입니다.</p> <p><br></p> <p>물론 더불어와 열린이 표를 나눠가지기에 어느 한쪽이 일방적으로 40%까지 가기는 힘들것으로 보입니다만 <span style="color:#0055ff;">더불어시민당</span>의</p> <p>경우의 수를 보시고 아마 많은 분들이 생각이 복잡해지실것이라 생각됩니다.</p> <p>25%득표면 현실적으로 약 600만명의 유권자의 표가 모여진 어마어마한 결과입니다.</p> <p><span style="color:#ff0000;">그런데 600만명이 투표해서 민주당 2명이 당선되는것이 현실입니다.</span></p> <p><br></p> <p>다만 10% 20%등 꼭 정확한 수치에 해당되야만 당선이되고 안되고가 갈리진 않습니다. 즉 둘 중 어디에 투표를 하셔도 사표는 안됩니다. 정의당에 투표를 하면 그것은 2천만 퍼센트 사표입니다. 여러분의 소중한 한 표가 정의당의 똥통 비례후보들의 당선에 이용되는 것은 절대 안된다고 생각하기 때문입니다.</p> <p><br></p> <p>더불어/열린 31% 14% 이런식으로 득표해도 사표는 하나도 없습니다.</p> <p>그러니 두 당에 마음가는대로 투표하시면 됩니다.</p> <p><br></p> <p>제 개인적인 생각으로는 더불어시민당은 더불어민주당에서 어차피 홍보를 할 것이고 기존의 정치저관여지지자와 중도층의 투표를 어렵지 않게 이끌어내리라 생각이 됩니다. 따라서 정치 고관여층이고 관심이 많은 분들이 열린민주당에 표를 보태준다면 좀더 대통령님의 호위무사에 가까운 분들이 열린민주당을 통해서 국회입성이 되지않을까라는 생각으로 열린민주당에</p> <p>투표를 할 생각입니다.</p> <p><br></p> <p>예상으로는 더불어시민당이 아마도 비례순번이 최소 5번 이내에는 들어갈 것으로 보여지고 열린민주당은 아마 투표용지에서도 꽤나 주의하며 찾아야 하는 순번일 것이라 예상되기에 더욱 그렇습니다.</p> <p><br></p> <p>어떤 결과가 최선이다 혹은 어떻게 되어야 한다보다는 <strong><u>우선은 더불어시민당과 열린민주당을 최대한 홍보하고 후보들을 알리는 것이 우리 유권자들이 먼저 해야할 일이라고 생각합니다.</u></strong> 당 차원에서는 경쟁하는 모양새도 취할 것이고 이런저런 모습도 보일수도 있지만 유권자는 흔들리면 안됩니다. </p>
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[1] 2020/03/22 07:24:43 59.125.***.62 심심해라
782839[2] 2020/03/22 07:47:37 183.102.***.95 뿔달린말
597949[3] 2020/03/22 08:05:12 106.102.***.14 선빵여왕
686528[4] 2020/03/22 08:38:14 110.70.***.174 소리소리
463560[5] 2020/03/22 08:57:55 210.222.***.218 믹스테일
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58231[7] 2020/03/22 09:59:28 39.7.***.228 러너비
710884[8] 2020/03/22 12:20:59 14.46.***.136 dter001
773140[9] 2020/03/22 17:28:11 211.215.***.93 팡팡스
743328[10] 2020/03/22 21:32:20 121.131.***.161 HouseCat
781337
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